Newt Gingrich falls faster than the market crash on October 28, 1929


On a few days ago, everyone was talking about how Newt Gingrich (me included) was the front runner for the Republican nomination for President.  All the polls (state and national) were showing a surge in support for the former House Speaker.

But just like every other candidate to surge into the lead over the past six months, Newt is in free fall.

  • Yesterday, Gallup'[s 5-day national tracking has Newt with a small lead over Romney nationally (26% to 24%) – Newt is down 11 points in 10 days.
  • Yesterday, Public Policy Polling showed that Gingrich is now in third (yes third) in Iowa behind Ron Paul and Mitt Romney.
  • Today, Nate Silver at the New York Times forecasted that Gingrich has only a 15% chance of winning the Iowa Caucus.
  • Gingrich’s stock has literally crashed at the inTrade markets (down  almost 20 points in a week, see graphic below)

And if these indicators were not enough bad news stories for Gingrich’s campaign, word came out today that Gingrich’s campaign is only planning to spend $21,000 on TV advertising in Iowa over the next week.  That compares with the $1 million spent by Romney’s PAC and the $450K spent by Perry’s PAC.

With no more debates and no money to spend on ads, Gingrich doesn’t have the means to revive the campaign.  Worse, he didn’t even spend the weekend in Iowa campaigning and just opened his campaign office a week ago.

Polls can tell us a lot about where voters are headed or the potential for change.  But what has happened in the Republican nomination demonstrates that they are just snapshots in time and things can change and they can change quickly.

There’s only two weeks left until the Iowa Caucuses.  If Gingrich doesn’t win or come a strong second, he’s likely finished.

Newt's rise and fall on the market at inTrade