Federal Vote Intentions: CPC 41, NDP 32, LPC 17

A new national poll from Abacus Data finds that federal vote intentions among decided voters has not changed much at since its last survey in May.

All change is within the margin of error with the Conservatives at 41% (+1), the NDP at 32% (-1), and the Liberal Party at 17% (+1).

“Despite all the attention that the Canada Post back to work legislation received, vote intentions have remained frozen over the last month,” said David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data.  “The Conservatives have big leads among men, in Ontario and the West, and among Canadians over 60 years of age.”

In Quebec, the NDP continues their dominance of the province with 41% of decided voters in the province preferring the Official opposition.  One in four decided voters (25%) would vote BQ followed by 11% for the Conservatives.  The Liberal Party is down to what could be considered an historic low in Quebec at 9%.

“As we head into the summer, current vote intentions look similar to the results on May 2,” said Coletto.  “The party system continues its trend towards polarization as the Liberals continue to be squeezed by the Tories on the right and the NDP on the left.”

Download the full report.


From June 23 to 24, 2011 Abacus Data Inc. conducted an online survey among 1,005 randomly selected Canadian adults from an online panel of over 150,000 Canadians. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is comparable to +/- 3.2%, 19 times out of 20.

Results of the survey were statistically weighted by gender, age, region, and education using census data from Statistics Canada and by past vote using Elections Canada results from the 2011 General Election. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.